Saturday, April 22, 2006

Ubuntu: Who Is the Target Audience?

For Linux on the desktop, Ubuntu Linux is clearly the best distribution yet to emerge from the open source community. Why has it taken us this long to achieve:
  • A clearly open source project
  • That offers a stable distribution
  • That supports current hardware
  • And is easy to install
  • With a strong selection of desktop-oriented apps in the default install
Yet for all its virtues, I find myself wondering, "Who is the real market for Ubuntu?"

I've been led to ask this question because I'm in the process of writing a book for Manning Press titled "Desktop Linux with Ubuntu". I'm thrilled that the community will have a genuinely desktop-oriented book on Ubuntu, and I'm honored to be the one writing it. But I, the publisher, and my editor have spent quite a bit of time discussing who this book is really for.

Let me first say who it's not for. Most of my friends who are Linux geeks have worked with Linux on the desktop for a long time. I've been using Linux as my desktop system since 1994 (1.0.8 kernel). In the last couple of years, I've seen a definite trend. About 60% of the folks have switched to using MacOs X as their desktop system, while continuing to work extensively, both personally and professionally, with Linux as a server solution. These people have essentially given up on Linux on the desktop. The other 40% have mostly switched to Ubuntu. These people do not need a book on Ubuntu. They've been through the best and worst with other Linux distros, and Ubuntu is a walk in the park for them.

What we all hope, of course, is that Ubuntu will draw in a new group of Linux desktop users. But who will they be? Home users or "knowledge workers"?

Part of me wants to say "home users". My wife and I are coming up on our fourth anniversary, and since we've been living together she's been exclusively a Linux user. She has no complaints; it seems easy to her, and she's yet to find something she wants to do with a computer that she can't do with Linux. Of course, the key here is that I'm standing over her shoulder to play sys admin, explain things to her, and make sure things like our network connection and backup procedure actually work.

What's interesting, though, is that I'd be doing the same tasks on her behalf even if we were using Windows. She doesn't know that much about computers, does want to know that much about computers, and has little prior experience with them. It would have been as much, or more of an effort for her to learn Windows.

Now, I think that Ubuntu is getting to the point where someone like her could probably figure it out on her own, and get reasonable use out of the system. The problem is, she just doesn't want to. Figuring out computers is not on her agenda in life, and she'd certainly never go so far as to buy a book about computers.

I think there is a certain segment of Linux-curious power users out there that will enjoy Ubuntu and would be interested in a book about Ubuntu on the desktop. But honestly, I think that number is still pretty small.

Which leads me back to the knowledge worker. I actually think the biggest market for Ubuntu is in small- to medium-sized businesses, and organizations like nonprofits or schools. These are organizations that need a certain level of computer technology, but are very limited in terms of budget, human resources, and technology expertise.

The process I envision is one in which a pro-Linux IT guy in an understaffed, small- to mid-sized organization persuades management to give Linux a try on a number of desktops. Ubuntu is the chosen Linux distribution for this endeavor, and a copy of an Ubuntu book focused on the desktop would accompany each Ubuntu installation. In other words, the person buying the book (the IT guy) and the person using the book (the knowledge worker) would not be the same person.

By analogy, this is the way most children's books are sold. The books are written for children, but parents have to be sold on the book since they are the ones making the actual purchase. Perhaps this is an appropriate metaphor for where desktop Linux stands today: Linux "adults" have to make the installation decision and guide the initial usage of Linux newcomers. Seen this way, the workplace has to be more fertile ground for Linux desktop growth than the home market. Even in households with a Linux veteran, the ratio of veterans to newcomers will be on the order of 1-1. In the small office workplace:
  • Linux veterans are more common
  • The ratio of veterans to newcomers is more on the order of 50-1 or 100-1
Thus it is in the workplace that we can use our small numbers to reach a larger audience.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home